Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
